Decentraland’s price is currently rising above a critical support level, suggesting the possibility of a rally. The big picture also seemed to show the formation of a bottom reversal pattern. This lent credence to the likelihood of a bullish breakout from the ongoing consolidation of the alt.
MANA is waiting for a catalyst
MANA has tagged the $2.20 support level three times since Nov. 10, triggering a triple tap configuration. This technical formation is similar to the triple bottom setup, but the central tag usually deviates below the base. The setup also predicts a trend change in favor of the bulls.
After the third retest of the $2.20 barrier, MANA’s price consolidated, with the same price remaining below the $2.83 threshold at the time of writing. The longer this rolling up continues, the more explosive an outbreak will be.
Therefore, investors can expect a run-up of at least 20% to $2.83. In a very bullish event, the crypto could revisit the $3.49 resistance barrier, bringing the total gain to 46%.
This optimistic outlook for Decentraland’s price is supported by the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This indicator is used to assess the average profit/loss of investors who have purchased MANA tokens in the past month.
A negative value of less than -10% indicates that short-term holders are at a loss and this is generally where long-term holders tend to accumulate. That is why a value below -10% is often referred to as an “opportunity zone”.
Currently, the 30-day MVRV for MANA hovers around -7.8% after recovering from -14% in the past week. This could be a sign that there is an accumulation of long-term holders underway.
A comprehensive picture
Net realized gain/loss (NPL) is another on-chain metric that can be used to gauge the potential pressure on the sell side. This index calculates the average gain/loss of coins that change address daily.
The first time the asset changes hands, NPL assumes that the address has acquired the token and considers it sold as sold the next time it is moved to another address. Therefore, a spike in this value suggests potential profit-taking, and the size of the spike indicates the number of coins sold.
On March 10, the NPL peaked to 16.26 million, indicating massive but potential profit-taking. While it may seem bearish at the moment, it narrows the possibility of a sell-off. The combination of the consolidation and MVRV with NPL paints a comprehensive picture, one that points to an optimistic outlook for the price of MANA.
Finally, the 1-hour active addresses metric shone the spotlight on a positive spike, adding weight to the already optimistic outlook. This on-chain indicator has delivered a higher high, indicating increased investor interest. A rise in this index suggests that retail participants are optimistic about MANA as press price levels are pushed.
In conclusion, MANA’s price seems poised for a step up, with the odds of it going down being quite marginal. However, a decisive close below USD 2.20 will invalidate the bullish thesis and open the way to further downside effects.
This post The how and why of MANA’s projected 20% run-up in the charts
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