Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $40,000 on March 4 and has been trading below the level throughout the weekend.
Although cryptocurrency price action has been volatile in recent days, data from Glassnode shows that institutional investors have been gradually accumulating Bitcoin through shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since December 2021.
Another positive sign has been that fund managers have not panicked and have dumped their holdings in GBTC. This suggests that managers are possibly optimistic in the long run, thus getting over the short-term pain.
Daily view of crypto market data. Source: Coin360
Bloomberg Intelligence said in its March 4 crypto market outlook report that Bitcoin may remain under pressure if US stock markets continue to fall, but eventually they expect cryptocurrencies to come out on top. On the other hand, if the stock market recovers, Bitcoin could “raise faster” if previous patterns repeat.
Although crypto markets are facing strong headwinds, selected altcoins are showing signs of life. Let’s study the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that could benefit from a Bitcoin rally.
USDT/BTC
Bitcoin broke below the moving averages on March 4, which suggests that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand. The bulls tried to catch the aggressive bears by pushing the price above the moving averages on March 5 and 6, but failed.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price sustains below the moving averages, the bears will try to push the BTC/USDT pair to the support line of the ascending channel. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively. A strong bounce off this support will suggest that the pair could extend its stay within the channel for a few more days.
This short-term bearish view will be invalidated if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day exponential moving average ($40,474). That will indicate strong buying at lower levels. The bulls will try to push the price towards the resistance line of the channel. The next trending move is likely to start after the pair breaks above or below the channel.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart has turned down and the RSI is in the negative zone, which indicates that the bears have the upper hand. If the price falls below $38,000, the pair could drop to $37,000 and then to $35,500.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels. Upside momentum could pick up after the pair breaks out and closes above the 50 SMA. That could open the doors for a potential rally to $45,000.
USD/XRP
Ripple (XRP) has been attempting to break above the downtrend line for the past few days, but the bears have held their ground. A minor positive is that the bulls have not given up and are trying to defend the 50-day SMA ($0.72).
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flat moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage to either the bulls or the bears. If the bulls push and hold the price above the downtrend line, momentum is likely to pick up and the XRP/USDT pair could rally to $0.91.
A breakout and close above this level could clear the way for a potential retest of psychological resistance at $1. Conversely, if the price breaks down and sustains below $0.69, it will suggest that the bears are back in control. The pair could drop to $0.62.
XRP/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is currently in a range between $0.80 and $0.70. If the buyers push the price above the downtrend line, the pair could challenge the overhead resistance at $0.80. A breakout and close above this level could indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. The pair could first rise to $0.85 and then to $0.91.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears are selling on the rallies. The pair could then drop to $0.70. If this level is broken, the selling could accelerate and the pair could drop to $0.62.
CLOSE/USDT
The NEAR (NEAR) protocol is sandwiched between the moving averages of the past few days. This shows that the bears are selling the rallies of the 50-day SMA ($11), while the bulls are buying the dips of the 20-day EMA ($10).
NEAR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The RSI is close to the midpoint and the 20-day EMA has flattened out, indicating a balanced state between the bulls and the bears. If the price bounces off the current level and breaks above $12, it will suggest that the bulls are making a comeback. The NEAR/USDT pair could rally to $14, where it may again meet strong resistance from the bears.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks out and sustains below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears have the upper hand. The pair could then drop to the strong support at $8.
NEAR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The pair picked up some bullish momentum after breaking above the downtrend line, but the relief rally is facing stiff resistance at $12. The bears pulled the price below the 20 EMA but the bulls managed to defend the 50 EMA.
If the buyers push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will once again try to break above the $12 overhead hurdle. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 50-SMA, the selling could intensify and the pair could slide to $9.50.
Related: Bitcoin Heads for 36K, Analysis Says Amid Warning Global Stocks ‘Look Expensive’
USDT/XMR
Monero (XMR) has been correcting within a descending channel for the past few weeks. The bulls are buying the dips to $134 and attempting to form a base pattern.
XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
This has resulted in a consolidation between $134 and $188 in the past few days. The 20-day EMA ($164) has leveled off and the RSI is close to the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
This balance will shift in buyers’ favor if they push and hold the price above $188. That will complete a double bottom pattern, which has a target objective of $242. However, the rally is unlikely to be easy as the bears are expected to mount a strong defense at the resistance line of the channel.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and drops below $155, the bears will try to push the XMR/USDT pair to $134.
XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls pushed the price above the downtrend line but could not sustain the higher levels. This indicates that the bears are aggressively defending this level. The moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which indicates a balance between supply and demand.
If the price turns down and drops below $155, the short-term trend could turn in favor of the bears. Conversely, a close above the downtrend line could improve the outlook for a possible rise to the overhead resistance at $188.
WAVES/USDT
Waves (WAVES) formed a double bottom pattern at $8 and rallied strongly to $21. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the overbought zone, which indicates that the bulls have the upper hand.
WAVES/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears pose a tough challenge near $20, but one bright spot is that the bulls have not given up much ground. If the price rises from the current level, it will suggest that the bulls are buying the dips. That will increase the chance of a retest to $21.
If the bulls push and sustain the price above $21, the WAVES/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally towards $24 and then $27. This positive view will be invalidated in the short term if the bears pull back and hold the pair below $16.
WAVES/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the correction from $21 brought the RSI from deeply overbought levels to just below the midpoint. The bulls bought the drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $16 and have pushed the price above the 20-day EMA.
If the price sustains above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to push the pair above the overhead resistance at $21.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that short-term traders may be rushing to the exit. That could take the pair to $14 and then to $13.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
This post BTC, XRP, NEAR, XMR, WAVES
was published first on https://cointelegraph.com/news/top-5-cryptocurrencies-to-watch-this-week-btc-xrp-near-xmr-waves
