The recent collapse of Terra has been repeatedly pointed to as the main source of weakness affecting crypto assets, but it is much more likely that a combination of factors is behind the start of this current bear market.

At the same time that the market was reeling from the Terra saga, the 2-year mark for the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving was also crossed and this is a metric that some analysts have used as an indicator of the end of a market. bullish.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

As shown in the chart above, previous cycles have seen BTC peak followed by a price decline that first falls below the 50-day moving average (MA) and then a climactic capitulation event that pushes the price down. below the 200-day MA.

Many traders were puzzled by the lack of a top in the most recent bull market cycle because this phenomenon has usually marked the last leg of an exhausted trend.

Traders also questioned the validity of the popular stock-to-flow model after BTC failed to reach $100,000 before the end of 2021.

Stock-to-flow model of Bitcoin. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

During previous market cycles, BTC traded well above the S2F pattern at this stage of its progression with the pattern swing in the positive. Currently, the model variation gives a reading of -0.86 while the price of BTC is well below the S2F line.

This lack of a blowout high has led some traders to steer clear of earlier calls for a final price rally that will see BTC hit $100,000 before entering an extended bear market, but that remains to be seen.

Perhaps the market will bottom out in November?

While some are still hoping for one last hurray before the bear market really sets in, a more bearish view predicts another 6 months of price decline before the market bottoms out.

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

Based on previous cycles, the market low came about 13 months after the market high, which would suggest a low sometime around December of this year if the current trend holds.

This is further validated when looking at the time between the bottom of the market and the next Bitcoin halving event.

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

During previous cycles, each cycle low was reached approximately 17 to 18 months before the next halving. The next BTC halving is projected to occur on May 5, 2024, which would suggest the market will bottom in November or December 2022.

Related: Bitcoin Is Discounted Near Its “Realized” Price, But Analysts Say There Is Room For Deep Downside

Traders remain permabulls despite current price action

As for price predictions, there is much less consensus on this matter due to the poor performance of BTC during the last cycle, where the majority of traders expected $100,000.

Traders continue to call for BTC to break above the $100,000 mark in the not-too-distant future with a handful holding on to the penultimate $1 million target.

Bitcoin price prediction chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

A general range of possible prices outlined by the LookIntoBitcoins price prediction tool suggests a BTC high of $238,298, while the upper delta indicator indicates a high of $119,886. The terminal price indicator currently provides a price prediction of $107,801.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.





This post Bitcoin Price Predictions Abound as Traders Focus on BTC’s Next Halving Cycle

was published first on https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-predictions-abound-as-traders-focus-on-the-next-btc-halving-cycle

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