Bitcoin has found temporary support at $39,000, but buyers have been in short supply as the market heads into weekend price action. Uncertainty around macro factors seems to be growing with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine contributing to the selling pressure experience of BTC and larger cryptocurrencies in recent days.

Related Reading | Market Update: Crypto Market Rebounds as Tech Firms Boycott Russia

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $39,168 with a 4.2% loss in the last 24 hours.

BTC moving sideways on the 4 hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

The benchmark crypto saw some relief before the current downside action. According to a report by research firm Delphi Digital, Bitcoin activity soared due to the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The United States, Europe and the international community decided to ban the Russian Federation from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT), the communication rails used by banks in the legacy financial system. Effectively turning Russia into a financial outsider.

As seen below, on March 1, when the sanctions were announced, the active supply of Bitcoin saw its biggest increase since May 2020. At that time, the start of lockdown measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 led global markets into a severe downward trend. .

This increase in the active supply of Bitcoin could suggest that buyers increased their holdings to hedge against future events. At the same time, as Brian Armstrong and other crypto exchange CEOs have reported, people on the ground have used BTC and other cryptocurrencies to safely transport wealth across borders.

Additional data provided by Delphi Digital seems to support this thesis, as the supply of BTC held by addresses with balances between 0.001 and 10 BTC exceeded 2.73 million. The research company aggregate The next:

Cutting off the Russian ruble from the global financial system triggered a sell-off, causing it to drop 20% over the weekend. As the Russians try to preserve value, BTC has become one of the options. This caused BTC to trade at a staggering 40% premium.

Source: Delphi Digital

Bitcoin at the time of making it or breaking it?

As NewsBTC reported yesterday, Bitcoin needed to stay above $40,000 to prevent further decline. Now, with the loss of critical support, a possible revision to $36,000 seems likely.

Data from Material Indicators seems to support this thesis, at least for shorter timeframes, as there appears to be little liquidity at current levels up to that price point. As seen in the chart below, there are about $18 million in bid requests for BTC at $36,000.

Until then, any level looks weak, short-term. On the upside, the order book looks similarly thin, but without buying pressure it seems unlikely that the price of BTC will rise, for the time being.

BTC price (blue line) with a thin buy side up to $36k (bid orders below the red and yellow price). Source: Material Indicators

Related Reading | Billionaire Investor Says Crypto Outlook Is ‘Very Bullish’ For Bitcoin

According to a pseudonymous analyst, BTC price benefited from the “safe haven asset narrative” but that momentum seems to have died down. Speaking of the potential opportunity to buy BTC falling at future lows, giving the asset’s potential ability to recapture previous highs, the analyst said:

(…) we would need a push above $46K to continue its uptrend which will not be easy after such a drop (…). As for the direction of $BTC, I’m a bit conflicted on what’s next. Until we lose the current level, I still have some hope of a reversal, but the bulls really have to pull through after the weekend. As for the weekend, I expect to mostly chop as usual.

This post Bitcoin Activity Spikes After Russian SWIFT Ban, BTC at Crucial Point?

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